We elaborate on an alternative representation of conditional probability to the usual tree diagram. We term the representation “turtleback diagram” for its resemblance to the pattern on turtle shells.

Created with R2024a. Compatible with R2024a and later releases. You can use these live scripts as demonstrations in lectures, class activities, or interactive assignments outside class. This module ...

The conjunction and disjunction fallacies are famous for revealing the limits of human reasoning about probability. This can be measured by telling people a short story about a character and then ...