Learn how prior probability informs economic theory and decision-making in Bayesian statistics. Understand its role before collecting new data.

Rev. Thomas Bayes (1702-1761), an English clergyman, is credited as the author of “An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances.” Published posthumously in 1763, the paper set out ...

Get a simple explanation of Bayes’ Theorem that anyone can understand, even with no advanced math background. This video ...

How likely you think something is to happen depends on what you already believe about the circumstances. That is the simple concept behind Bayes’ rule, an approach to calculating probabilities, first ...

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Writes about the future of finance and technology, follow for more. Joint probability teaches us to calculate combined outcomes.

Humans are predication machines. Every second of every day, we are trying to navigate the world based on our predictions. We are making predictions when we book a holiday, based on our prior knowledge ...