The October FOMC minutes underscored deep divisions over the Fed’s next move, reinforcing expectations for a December hold but keeping the easing bias intact. The 10–2 vote for a 25 bps cut included ...

Please join Dhaval Joshi, Chief Strategist, Counterpoint, for a Webcast on Friday, November 21, at 10:30 AM EST, 3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET. In the latest edition of this series of Webcasts, Dhaval will ...

Falling oil prices are countering tariff-driven inflation which, along with a weakening labor market, is reinforcing a long duration stance. Brent crude broke below the $65/bbl support level held ...

Powell’s “risk management cut” underscores the Fed’s shift toward growth risks, reinforcing long duration with steepeners. Risk management is central to monetary policy. It determines how policymakers ...

May JOLTS data suggest labor market softening beneath the surface, reinforcing a defensive stance across portfolios. Job openings rose to 7.7m from 7.4m, beating estimates, while quits ticked up to ...

A falling dollar usually eases financial conditions, but recent dollar weakness is unlikely to reverse negative growth surprises, reinforcing our call to sell risk assets on strength. Our tactical ...

The stock-bond yield correlation is stabilizing after months of jitters, setting the stage for renewed Treasury demand as recession risks build. A negative correlation typically points to inflation ...

The Q1 US GDP contraction and inflation dynamics reinforce our defensive asset allocation. GDP missed estimates and contracted -0.3% annualized, led by a sharp slowdown in net exports. Consumption ...

Inflation Cools But Trade Tensions Keep the Fed on Hold ...

Our US Investment Strategy team recommends investors remain defensively positioned. Stay underweight US equities and overweight Treasuries and cash, on both a tactical and cyclical horizon, as the ...

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