TMC Research’s nowcast of recession risk continues to indicate a low probability that a downturn has started or is imminent.

Half of global retirement savers expect a recession to begin by the middle of next year, while most of the other half thinks the economy will grow. And inflation ranks as the top concern of global ...

That’s the most since 2020—but then you have to go back to 2009 to find when companies let so many workers go.

The U.S. hosts the 2026 World Cup, but data shows mega-events seldom lift GDP. Markets see a one-in-three recession risk.

A sizable minority at the Fed think the central bank should keep its focus on inflation. They note that weekly claims for state unemployment insurance, a sign of layoffs in the economy, have stayed ...

The headline numbers say the United States is still growing, yet daily life feels like a grind of higher prices, fragile jobs ...

As Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman prepares to present the Union Budget for FY26, the concept of a "growth recession" is gaining prominence. This economic phase, characterised by sluggish GDP ...

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said some sectors were in a recession as he argued for more interest rate cuts. By Alan Rappeport and Colby Smith Alan Rappeport covers the U.S. Treasury Department.

After pausing for nine months, the U.S. Federal Reserve resumed cutting interest rates on 17 September 2025. The recession forecasting method we've used to monitor the odds of a recession starting in ...

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It’s a provocative statement to suggest we’re already in a recession. I wouldn’t go that far for the whole economy, but for large swaths of the US, the recession is already here. On a day when the ...

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said Tuesday the U.S. economy will likely avoid a recession if the wealthiest individuals continue to spend at the current rate. In a post on the social ...