Discover how tail risk impacts portfolios, why rare financial events matter, and strategies for safeguarding investments against significant, unexpected losses.

Remember the torture memos? The boat strike memos may be worse. Ford workers told their CEO ‘none of the young people want to work here.’ So Jim Farley took a page out of the founder’s playbook Drone ...

Only 6% of US exchange-traded funds surveyed anticipated any capital gains distribution in 2025, and just 2% expected amounts above 1% of net asset value. The 10 largest distributions were mainly tied ...

Interest Rate Probability Distributions Implied by Derivatives Prices is a daily measure of the distribution of future short-term interest rates, calculated from prices of fixed-income derivatives ...

This methodological article aims to present the type I Pareto distribution in a clear and illustrative manner for better understanding among social researchers. It also provides R scripts for ...

Life is uncertain. None of us know what is going to happen. We know little of what has happened in the past or is happening now outside our immediate experience. Uncertainty has been called the ...

This year, more ETFs are paying out capital gains than in 2022 and 2023. Nonetheless, ETFs remain more tax-efficient than mutual funds. Most ETFs that expect to distribute gains this year were ...

One of the biggest benefits of saving in traditional retirement accounts like a 401(k) or IRA is the upfront tax break you receive. You won't owe any income taxes on contributions in the year you make ...

The mathematician Daniel Litt has driven social media users to distraction with a series of simple-seeming but counterintuitive probability puzzles. In late January, Daniel Litt posed an innocent ...

When is it appropriate to completely reinvent the wheel? To an outsider, that seems to happen a lot in category theory, and probability theory isn’t spared from this treatment. We’ve had a useful ...