FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.

David Wasserman is the U.S. House editor for the Cook Political Report.

Twelve years ago, just after the 2004 Iowa caucuses, Democratic candidate Howard Dean raised his voice, balled his fist and entered political history as a man whose immoderate speaking style cost him ...

Eight Republican candidates participated in the party’s first primary debate in August. But the stage could feature fewer contenders when the GOP holds its next debate later this month. Table only ...

Let’s get this out of the way up front: There was a wide gap between the perception of how well polls and data-driven forecasts did in 2022 and the reality of how they did … and the reality is that ...

In the first few years after former President Donald Trump assumed office, he essentially became a one-man litmus test for the Republican Party. Conservatives’ bona fides hinged less on their voting ...

I’m not that impressed by long-term projections of Democratic doom in the Senate. Mostly that’s because I’m not that impressed by long-term political projections in general. Political coalitions ...

When the 2022 World Cup made its debut on Sunday, it kicked off one of the most significant in-game uses of technology in sports history. All tournament long, match balls will contain a sensor that ...

We don’t even know every result of 2022 yet, but the 2024 election has already begun. On Tuesday, former President Donald Trump announced that he would seek a second nonconsecutive term as president.

“Incumbency still matters,” said Gbemende Johnson, a professor of political science at the University of Georgia. “On top of that, Kemp now has a record that he can run on, so the conditions are quite ...

Days after a white gunman shot 13 people, killing 10, at a grocery store in a majority-Black neighborhood in Buffalo, New York, Fox News host Tucker Carlson aired a segment about the “great ...

Vote margin calculated based on the two-party vote, which uses just the Democratic and Republican vote totals. Together, the share of the statewide vote and the benchmark margins produce a 50-50 tie, ...