On the labor market, I don’t feel as confident we can get ahead of it. It’s vulnerable enough now that the risk is it’ll have ...

Economic conditions in the Twelfth District were mixed during the October to mid-November reporting period. Employment levels ...

We show that the underlying source of inflation impacts financial market perceptions of the persistence of monetary policy ...

To better understand the potential impacts of AI on the economy, this analysis assesses workers likely to be exposed to AI on ...

The U.S. economy has remained remarkably resilient this year, navigating uncertainty, changes in government policy, including tariffs, immigration, deregulation, and taxes, an AI-driven technology ...

Financial markets repriced assets across a wide range of sectors following the U.S. trade policy announcement on April 2, 2025. Analysis suggests that market participants interpreted tariffs to have ...

State-level unemployment claims can provide a real-time measure of national labor market conditions and the overall state of the economy. A rapid and widespread buildup of stress in state labor ...

After a prolonged decline, U.S. inflation-adjusted interest rates have increased somewhat since the pandemic—possibly implying a higher new normal. As central banks attempt to tame the post-pandemic ...

Monetary policy is forward-looking and dependent on policymakers’ economic outlook. When the outlook is deemed highly uncertain, policymakers may put more weight on incoming data when making monetary ...

A substantial and unexpected rise in women’s labor force participation rates over the past few years has been a key factor spurring rapid labor force growth. In particular, Hispanic women have made a ...

Wildfires have been a concern in California for decades. The intensity of these events has increased recently, with particularly large and destructive fire seasons between 2018 and 2021. Analysis ...

Households accumulated more liquid assets beginning in 2020 than would have been expected without the pandemic. These “extra” liquid assets have dissipated, but their evolution has differed ...